The Jaguars are a 10-point road favorite vs a thinned-out Ravens team

The Jacksonville Jaguars should not be a 10-point road favorite on a Thursday in Baltimore. That is where the market is anyway, and the reason is sitting on injured reserve.

Jacksonville (5-2) leads the AFC South by three games and kicks off at 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video at M&T Bank Stadium. Baltimore (4-4) placed Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley on IR on Thursday and will start undrafted rookie Joe Fagnano, with Austin Reed as the backup, per the Ravens and multiple national reporters. A Jacoby Brissett trade is still being finished this weekend. He will not play tonight.

This is the same script Jacksonville has already run. The Jaguars beat Philadelphia in London without Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith and Jonathan Greenard available for the Eagles, and after Lane Johnson's retirement and the Cam Jurgens trade. They flattened Indianapolis 42-7 last week after the Colts traded DeForest Buckner and Quenton Nelson. Josh Hines-Allen called Thursday another case of not panicking and doing the job, per the AP.

A double-digit road favorite on short rest usually means the home quarterback room is broken. Fagnano's only NFL tape is 10 of 21 for 91 yards and an interception in relief at Buffalo. Derrick Henry (632 yards, eight touchdowns) is still the home problem. Trevor Lawrence (1,690 yards, 17 touchdowns) and a Jaguars offense that leads the NFL with 10 scores of 25-plus yards are the road problem.

Baltimore can still make this ugly if Henry runs and the crowd shows up. The Ravens are 1-2 at home and have lost five of their last six home games, per the AP. Calais Campbell asked fans for grace at 4-4. Grace is fine. Covering 10 points with a third-string rookie on Thursday Night Football is a different ask.

Jacksonville keeps drawing opponents that are missing their best pieces, and tonight is the clearest version yet. If the Jaguars need a reminder not to sleepwalk, Hines-Allen already gave it. If Baltimore needs a path, it is Henry early and hope Fagnano's first start stays clean. Brissett can wait until the Chargers. Thursday belongs to whoever treats a 10-point road line like a trap instead of a gift.